After Singapore: Antonelli Can Clinch the 2026 Title in Austin

Singapore is done, 17 rounds are in the books and only six races remain, with no sprints left. That means a maximum of 150 points is still available to every driver and 258 to every team. Kimi Antonelli now sits on 340 points, 102 clear of Mercedes teammate George Russell, and for the first time this season the maths says he can wrap up the title at the next race in Austin.

Singapore Shake-Up: Who Gained the Most

Max Verstappen won in Singapore and was the weekend's top scorer, while Russell picked up only 2 points. That one result tightened the whole fight for second place:

• Verstappen +25 → 221 pts (P4)

• Leclerc +18 → 215 pts (P5)

• Antonelli +15 → 340 pts (P1)

• Norris +12 → 201 pts (P6)

• Piastri +10 → 138 pts (P7)

• Hamilton +8 → 229 pts (P3)

• Russell +2 → 238 pts (P2)

Who Can Still Catch Antonelli for the title?

On paper, five drivers are still alive. Add 150 points to their current totals and Russell (max 388), Hamilton (379), Verstappen (371), Leclerc (365) and Norris (351) can all still pass 340. Oscar Piastri (max 288) and everyone below him are mathematically out.

To be realistic, though, Russell would need to outscore Antonelli by more than 17 points per race for six races straight. Antonelli has only had that kind of run against him once all year.

Austin Match Point: How Antonelli Clinches

After the United States GP, only five races (125 points) remain. If Antonelli leaves Austin more than 125 points ahead of every rival, he is world champion. Here is what that means for each challenger:

• Russell (−102): Antonelli must outscore him by 24 or more. In practice that means Antonelli wins and Russell finishes P10 or lower.

• Hamilton (−111): Antonelli must outscore him by 15 or more.

• Verstappen (−119): Antonelli must outscore him by 7 or more.

• Leclerc (−125): Antonelli simply needs to finish ahead of him on points.

• Norris (−139): already more than 125 behind. He is eliminated in Austin unless he outscores Antonelli by 14 or more.

Bottom line: Russell is the key. A Mercedes 1-2 with Antonelli ahead is not enough, because 25 − 18 = 7. Antonelli needs a win plus a bad day for his teammate. Even if Austin doesn't settle it, he gets another match point in Mexico.

The Battle for P2 Is Wide Open

The title fight may be close to over, but the race for runner-up is the tightest battle on the grid: five drivers from four teams are covered by 37 points.

• Russell, 238: an engine DNF in Malaysia and just 2 points in Singapore have cost him a big cushion.

• Hamilton, 229 (−9): one good weekend away from second.

• Verstappen, 221 (−17): two wins in his last two races. He has the momentum.

• Leclerc, 215 (−23): only 14 behind his own teammate, so the intra-Ferrari battle is on too.

• Norris, 201 (−37): an outside shot, but 37 points is less than two race wins.

Constructors' Championship: The Fights Left

Mercedes lead Ferrari by 134 points with 258 still on the table. They can't seal the constructors' title in Austin: even a perfect 43-point weekend would leave them only 177 ahead, with 215 still to play for. Further down the order, though, there are some proper fights.

• P3, McLaren 339 vs Red Bull 332 (7 pts): the headline battle. Red Bull outscored McLaren 26–22 in Singapore and have Verstappen in winning form.

• P2, Ferrari 444 vs McLaren 339 (105 pts): Ferrari look safe, but it isn't mathematically over yet.

• P5, Racing Bulls 100 vs Alpine 68 (32 pts): one big Alpine weekend could make this interesting.

• P7, Haas 30 vs Audi 23 (7 pts): worth serious prize money. Audi scored 4 in Singapore while Haas scored nothing.

• P9, Williams 12 vs Aston Martin 7 vs Cadillac 0: a single points finish can swing it.

Watch It Live With Us

Will Antonelli become world champion in Austin, or does Russell keep the fight alive? Join the Racing Statistics watchalong on YouTube for every session of the United States GP weekend, with live timing, data and title-maths updates as they happen.