Can Max Verstappen Steal the 2025 F1 Drivers’ Title?
- Racing Statistics
- 7 days ago
- 3 min read
It’s mathematically possible and realistically difficult—but not crazy. With seven Grands Prix and three sprints left, a sharper RB21, and McLaren’s two drivers splitting points, Verstappen has a narrow but real path. Singapore is the pivot. If Max outscores Oscar Piastri there, the finale could get spicy.
The State of Play
Max Verstappen is on a heater: two wins in two and 68 points from the last 75. Since Red Bull’s floor upgrade at Monza, the RB21 looks more compliant in low-downforce, slow-speed packages (think Monza/Baku). With 7 Grands Prix + 3 sprints to go, he sits 69 points behind Oscar Piastri, while Lando Norris—who couldn’t fully capitalize on Oscar’s Baku nightmare—is 44 points ahead of Max.
So… is it on? Short answer: maybe. Here’s the shape of the problem—and the opportunity.
Can Max Verstappen Steal the 2025 F1 Drivers’ Title?
If Max wins every remaining race + sprint (10 total), he banks 199 points.
If Oscar finishes P2 in all of them, he adds 147 points.
In that ultra-extreme scenario, Oscar still wins by 17 points.
That looks bleak… until you remember: there are two McLarens. Norris and Piastri will take points off each other, and there’ll be weekends where Lando is the quicker Papaya. Max doesn’t need perfection—he needs consistent wins/Podiums and McLaren turbulence.
Key deltas to watch:
P1 vs P2 = 7 points in races.
Sprints are extra swing moments.
Any Ferrari/Mercedes cameos that wedge between McLarens and Max help his cause.
The Human Factor: Pressure, Mind Games, Margins
McLaren’s title fight has been mostly clean, but pressure escalates as the laps to the finish shrink. One flashpoint—a strategy call, a team order squabble, an on-track tangle—and the tone changes. Verstappen is elite at applying passive pressure: he needles on the radio, plants seeds, and keeps showing up in the mirrors. He’s been here four titles deep; Oscar and Lando haven’t.
If Max reaches Abu Dhabi within a puncher’s distance, he’ll be driving with freedom the
McLaren duo simply won’t have.
Singapore: The Deal-Breaker
Singapore is physically brutal and punishes errors. It’s also been tricky for the stiff-riding ground-effect Red Bulls in recent years. If Max wants this to be real, he likely needs to outscore Piastri—and ideally win—at Marina Bay. Do that on a layout that doesn’t obviously suit the RB21, and the psychological tide turns.
If Max wins Singapore (or at least lands a big net gain), the title fight is ON. If not, it likely fades there.
Track-by-Track Outlook (After Singapore)
Austin (Oct 19) – Sprint + Race - A complete car exam: low/medium/high-speed and big tyre management. McLaren should be strong, but if Red Bull’s floor has truly boosted downforce and reduced slip, Max’s tyre whispering keeps him in play. He’s won here many times.
Mexico City (Oct 26) - Max’s happy place. He owns the record for most Mexico wins. Red Bull historically nail this setup. Prime win chance.
Brazil (Nov 9) – Sprint + Race - Interlagos + Verstappen = 🧪⚡. If it rains, advantage Max grows. Massive swing potential with sprint points.
Las Vegas (Nov 22) - Cold temps can scramble tyre warm-up; quali is king. Ferrari/Mercedes could insert themselves and steal points from McLaren, which indirectly helps Max. He’s also a past winner here.
Qatar (Nov 30) – Sprint + Race - Fast, high-energy corners and tyre wear. If the floor upgrade really improved deg, Max is formidable, and he’s the only ground-effect era race winner here.
Abu Dhabi (Dec 7) - Balanced demands, slight lean to low-speed. On paper, McLaren looks comfy—but if Max arrives with a shot, expect peak execution.
What Must Happen for the Comeback
Singapore swing: Max must gain on Piastri (and ideally Norris) there.
Capitalize on McLaren splits:Â When Norris and Piastri trade weekends, Max must be P1/P2.
Leverage sprints:Â Bank extra points in Austin, Brazil, and Qatar.
Third-party spoilers: Ferrari/Mercedes between Max and McLarens = net gains.
Zero unforced errors:Â No strategy brain fades, no quali lock-ups, no penalties.
Verdict
Mathematically doable. Realistically tough. But with a faster RB21, sprint weekends ahead, and two Papayas sharing one pie, there’s an edge-case path. If Max lands a blow in Singapore, buckle up—this title fight could go all the way to Yas Marina.