We Were Denied the Greatest F1 Title Fight EVER!
- Racing Statistics
- 1 day ago
- 5 min read
We were denied the greatest F1 title fight ever – and no, that’s not an exaggeration. Stick with this to the end, because we’re about to rewind the 2025 season and hit two tiny butterfly effects that would have turned Abu Dhabi into the most insane three-way decider in F1 history. (and to be honest, probably in any other sport!)
Right now, the 2025 title showdown is already huge. But change just two moments – a McLaren team order in Monza and one more recent mistake – and suddenly we’re looking at a scenario that will never be repeated and we will never even get close to it!
Let’s go step by step.
The reality: still epic, but not peak chaos
Before we start playing “what if”, here’s where we actually stand going into Abu Dhabi 2025:
Lando Norris – 408 points
Max Verstappen – 396 points
Oscar Piastri – 392 points
Norris has a cushion. He doesn’t need to win in Abu Dhabi – a P3 does the job. Verstappen and Piastri both need big results and a bit of help from the racing gods (they do love drama, do they)
That’s the real world.
Now let’s break it.
Butterfly Effect #1: No team orders at Monza
We go back to Monza 2025.
Lando Norris is running ahead of Oscar Piastri in P2 earlier in the race, but a slow pit stop drops him behind his teammate. Late in the race – lap 48 of 53 – McLaren step in on the radio.
Oscar, let Lando through. It’s only fair.
Piastri doesn’t love it (obviously), but eventually he agrees and swaps positions with Norris.
In real life, that swap helped build the points gap Norris now enjoys.
But what if McLaren never made that call?
What if they just let them race to the flag?
Rewriting Monza: no swap, no “it’s only fair”
With no team order at Monza:
Norris stays P3, scoring 3 points fewer
Piastri stays P2, scoring 3 points more
Starting from the current real totals (408 / 396 / 392), that gives us:
🧮 Alternate Standings A – No Monza Swap Lando Norris – 405 points Max Verstappen – 396 points Oscar Piastri – 395 points
Now it already looks very different.
How Abu Dhabi changes in this universe!
In this scenario:
Norris still leads, but only by 9 points over Verstappen
Piastri is just 10 points off the lead
And the key part:
Norris now effectively needs P2 if Verstappen wins,
Both Max and Oscar need to win and hope Norris is P3 or lower.
Instead of Norris cruising with a margin to play with, you suddenly get a properly tense three-way showdown where:
Verstappen is in “win or bust” mode
Piastri is in “win or bust” mode
Norris can’t afford to sit back and let them sort it out as if one of them is P1 and the other P2, Lando loses the title.
That alone would already give us a more intense Abu Dhabi than the one we’re getting.
But we’re not done.
Butterfly Effect #2: Antonelli doesn’t make the mistake
Now we stretch the “what if” a little further.
Imagine:
No swap at Monza, and
Andrea Kimi Antonelli doesn’t make his mistake in Qatar, holds his nerve and finishes P4 like he should have.
In reality, that error gifted Lando extra points. Remove that mistake, and Norris loses another 2 points from his total.
*I know all of you thought of the meme below right now, but McLaren fans won't use it because Max said it, and Max fans won't use it because it favors Max - so read on and hold your comments until the end :D
So we start from our Alternate Standings A (405 / 396 / 395) and subtract 2 points from Norris:
🧮 Alternate Standings B – No Monza Swap + No Antonelli Error Lando Norris – 403 points Max Verstappen – 396 points Oscar Piastri – 395 points
That’s just 8 points covering all three drivers.
And here’s the extra spice: In this scenario, as they all arrive in Abu Dhabi with 7 wins each.
Whoever wins the race takes their 8th victory and has a huge advantage in the title tiebreak.
Now it gets properly crazy.
The Abu Dhabi title maths in the “perfect chaos” universe
Let’s look at a few key scenarios under Alternate Standings B:
Norris – 403
Verstappen – 396
Piastri – 395
All three on 7 wins.
If Verstappen wins Abu Dhabi
Verstappen: 396 + 25 = 421
Norris, if he finishes P2 (18 pts):
403 + 18 = 421
They end on equal points: 421 vs 421.
But because Max would now have 8 wins to Lando 7, the championship goes to Verstappen on countback.
If Norris is only P3 (15 pts):
Norris: 403 + 15 = 418
Verstappen: 421
Max wins the title comfortably.
So in this universe:
❗ If Verstappen wins Abu Dhabi, it is all in his hands - he wins the title!
If Piastri wins Abu Dhabi
Piastri: 395 + 25 = 420
Now we look at Norris:
If Norris finishes P3 (15 pts) →
403 + 15 = 418 → Piastri is World Champion
If Norris finishes P2 (18 pts) →
403 + 18 = 421 → Norris wins the title by 1 single point
So:
🧨 If Piastri wins and Max is P2, Piastri takes the title.🧨 The only P2 that works for Norris is behind Piastri – then Lando wins the championship by one point, 421 vs 420.
Summing it up
In this perfectly chaotic version of 2025:
If Max wins - Max is champion - Doesn't matter who is 2nd.
If Lando wins - Lando is champion - Doesn't matter who is 2nd.
If Oscar wins and Max is P2, Oscar is champion.
If Oscar wins and Lando is P2, Lando is champion
That’s about as pure a “whoever wins, wins the world championship” dynamic as you can script – with all three drivers realistically in play.
How close we were to the greatest title decider ever
All of this madness hangs on:
One team order at Monza: “Oscar, let Lando through.”
One mistake from a rookie in Qatar: Antonelli dropping a P4.
Take away those two tiny moments and Abu Dhabi 2025 isn’t just a big race – it becomes the single most intense three-way finale F1 has ever seen:
Three drivers
Eight points apart
All starting the weekend with 7 wins each
A finish where a single position change in the last laps decides whether Norris, Verstappen or Piastri becomes champion.
How cool would it have been to watch that play out?
Honestly, even just the no-swap Monza version – with 405 / 396 / 395 – would have made this Abu Dhabi feel like a modern-day Suzuka ‘89 crossed with Abu Dhabi ‘21.
But hey, let’s not get too greedy.
Even in the real timeline, Abu Dhabi 2025 is still going to be written into F1 history – one way or another.
And somewhere in an alternate universe, there’s a screaming commentator trying to explain how three drivers on 7 wins each just turned the final lap into the wildest title decider the sport has ever seen.
Now, if you are feeling hyped, come and watch the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix on Sunday with us on YouTube - you can't watch this one alone! We are hosting Watchalong session for all Free Practices, Qualifying and the race!
See you,
Cheers